The Senate Battleground

Liberal number-cruncher, Nate Silver of the New York Times, recently caused an uproar with fellow liberals because he projected that the Republicans would take over the Senate in 2014. More political handicappers are falling in line with the assessment by the day. If the political trends continue unabated, the question will not be if Republicans take the Senate, but by how much.

This latter question is not unimportant, as some of the Senate Republicans who won in the 2010 wave will likely be picked off in 2016 (looking at you, Mark Kirk--IL). Making this assumption, then, means that the Republicans will have to 3-4 extra seats on top of the 6 they need to retake the Senate. Can they do this?

Right now, the Rothenberg Political Report has Republicans gaining 4-8 seats. They stand to pick up three open seats in South Dakota, West Virginia, and Montana, as well as pick off an incumbent (Mark Pryor) in Arkansas. Rothenberg lists Louisiana, where Democratic incumbent, Mary Landrieu, is trying to defend here seat, as a toss-up. He lists two more Democratic incumbents--Mark Begich of Alaska and Kay Hagan of North Carolina--as at risk in the "Lean Democratic" category. Note that these states were all won by Mitt Romney. If Republicans win all of them, they will take 7 seats and win the Senate.

To get visuals of the current breakdown, check out the map at either RealClearPolitics or at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. (The Crystal Ball currently predicts Republicans to win 4-8 seats, and their thought-provoking assessment of the current state of the House, Senate, and races for governor can be found here.)

Perhaps the best indicator of election results, as indicated by Silver's article above, is job approval ratings for the President. There tends to be a very strong correlation between these approval ratings and electoral prospects--so much so that forecasting models can be based on this linkage. My favorite political scientist details a model he put together and give approximate number of seats that will be taken over in accordance with the President's approval rating. For a state-by-state assessment of takeover possibilities based on the President's job approval rating, go here.

The bottom line is that if the President's approval rating is at about 43% come Election Day, the Republicans will likely not only retain all of their own seats, but pick up 7-12 seats. (Most polls current have the rating at 42-44%, with a few outliers, putting the average at 43%.)

At this point, then, Democrats would lose approximately 10 seats in the Senate, giving Republicans a 55-45 advantage and a bit of a buffer in 2016. If we divided the pick-up opportunities into tiers (with "Tier 1" being most vulnerable), here's the seats that would flip:

Tier 1: South Dakota (open), West Virginia (open), Montana (open), Arkansas (Pryor)
Tier 2: Louisiana (Landrieu), Alaska (Begich), North Carolina (Hagan)
Tier 3: Michigan (open), Colorado (open)
Tier 4: Iowa (open), New Hampshire (Sheheen)
Tier 5: Virginia (Warner), Minnesota (Franken), Oregon (Merkley)

Republicans would take all Tier 1-3 seats, and one of the Tier 4 seats.

Remember, all of this could change.

For Democrats, the silver-lining comes in the Republicans history of self-sabotage, individually and as a party. Voters could also become less tired of the President and of his signature heath care law. In this case, perhaps the approval numbers inch up to about 46% (where Rasmussen typically has them) and have Democrats have a chance of holding the Senate.

Neither of these possibilities are particularly likely, however. Republicans have done their best recruiting job in years, with few "wild cards" who could really blow an opportunity. At the national level, any more Ted Cruz led filibusters or a possibility of a government shutdown is unlikely. In addition, Presidential approval ratings rarely go up at this juncture. Most voters have made up their mind with regard to whoever is in office, and fatigue begins to set in (hence the general rule that the President's party loses seats in mid-term elections).

If the approval ratings change, it will likely be for the worst. A number of polls already have the rating at 40-42%. If the economy continues to stagnate, the health care continues to show more dysfunction than success, or we appear to look weaker and less safe on the global stage, the tide could swell. In that case, both Tier 4 seats will likely go, as well as 1-2 Tier 5 seats, giving the Republicans a very strong firewall come 2016.

At this stage, I think both the rosy scenario for Democrats and a possible utter collapse are both unlikely. In line with the current numbers, I would currently guess that Republicans would take between 8-10 seats and have a decent change of holding the majority in 2016.