For all of you political junkies out there, you know that the Senate will be the primary electoral battleground next year.
As a quick note, there is virtually no chance of a change of power in the House of Representatives. The most likely scenario, barring any dramatic change in the country, is that one of the parties will pick up a couple of seats, which will do nothing to affect the balance of power.
Meanwhile, the majority of governor mansions will still belong to the GOP, which currently holds 29 of them and will likely lose a net of one or two (GOP will pick up AR, Dems will likely pick up PA and ME and possibly FL or MI.
In the Senate, only two GOP seats are potentially threatened--both in red states with strong Democratic contenders (KY and GA). But both are long-shot takeovers.
Meanwhile, the GOP, which needs six seats to re-take the Senate, are poised to grab at least four. They have a popular former governor running in the deep red state of North Dakota, and a popular representative running in the deep red state of West Virginia. They are also running a very strong contender (Harvard-trained Iraq veteran turned member of House of Representatives) in Arkansas against the incumbent, and a popular representative vying for the open seat in semi-red Montana
They also have a very strong shot at takeovers in deep red Louisiana and deep red Alaska against formerly popular incumbents. They are also probably even odds against the incumbent in North Carolina. If they got two of these latter three seats, they would re-take the Senate.
At the same time, due to the president's unpopularity, a number of other seats are becoming more vulnerable. A mediocre GOP candidate is running even for the open seat in Michigan, a list of GOP no-names are in contention for the open seat in Iowa. Virginia is now in play with a strong GOP contender having just announced his nomination, but the incumbent is popular and the GOP definitely starts in underdog status. New Hampshire will also immediately come into play if former MA Senator, Scott Brown, decides to run.
If the president's numbers stabilize a bit, control of the Senate will be a very close call and will likely be determined by the GOP's ability to withstand their normal tendency for self-sabotage. If the president's numbers remain where they are, however, there is a decent chance that a 2010-like wave could emerge, taking down 9-10 Democratic seats. The GOP could really use such a wave as--looking forward--they will have a half dozen vulnerable seats to defend in 2016 as a result of the 2010 wave that elected Republicans in battleground and even deep blue states.
The fun is only just beginning!
